Pages

Pages

Wednesday, August 14, 2002

Beer and " statistical correlation "

Forgive the pedantry for a moment : the dictionary defines

    " correlation " as  the degree to which two or more attributes  or

    measurements  on the same group of elements  show a tendency to vary

    together . ( Webster's College Dictionary )

               Again and again in the HEALTH NEWS , I encounter this

    flaw in logical reasoning : a statistical correlation is established

    -for example  between church going  and longevity or in today's news,

    between - of all things ! - beer drinking and a health heart. Then

    the naive scientifically illiterate  assumes that medical science has

    advanced in real knowledge.

                Common sense would caution doctors  against telling the

    public  that an  ADDICTIVE substance- like beer or wine - is good for

    them in " moderate " quantities. My own experience is that this sort

    of pseudo-science will only reinforce problem drinking : " If a little

    of the stuff is good , then more must be better !  "

          .
             I'll bet a strong statistical correlation can be established

    between people  with cancer who visit Elvis Presley's  Graceland mansion

    and the percentage among them of MIRACLE CURES - a correlation that

    would put the famous Fatima to shame !

               What about a statistical correlation between work as a

    newspaper editor and stomach ulcers ?

                  Or between being left-handed ( sinister in Latin ) and

    being a serial killer ?

              Unless you know the CAUSE of a phenomenon, a statistical

    correlation only suggests further investigation.

                  Now I need a nice cold beer. Good for heart, you know.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comments that are courteous, concise and relevant are always welcome, whether or not they agree with the views expressed here or not. Profanity is not necessary. Thank you for reading “Time Enough At Last!”

Ron